New model projections for number of infected and new admissions to hospitals
A new report with scenarios for infections and new admissions caused by the Omicron variant was released from the Expert Group for Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 on Saturday 18 December.
For an English version of the report, please follow this link.
There are considerable uncertainties regarding the Omicron variant and the report, therefore, describes 8 scenarios for the development of the Omicron variant in Denmark.
The scenarios include different degrees of the relative transmissibility of the Omicron variant compared to the Delta variant, the waning immunity of the Omicron variant and the risk of hospitalization with the Omicron variant.
Please note that restrictions presented in Denmark on Friday 17 December are not included in the model runs.
The estimated daily case number ranges from 9,000 to 45,000 as of 24 December, depending on the degree of waning immunity for the Omicron variant and depending on the relative transmission rate.
The daily number of new admissions ranges from 130-250 by 24 December, in a scenario assuming that Omicron variant cases have the same admission risk as Delta variant cases. An additional scenario assuming half the admission risk of the Delta variant estimates a range in the daily number of new admissions of 120-190 by 24 December.
Here you can see the Danish version of the report.
And here you can read an article in Danish about the report.